Daily Papers

A central statistical problem in population genetics is to infer evolutionary and biological parameters such as the strength of natural selection and allele age from DNA samples extracted from a contemporary population. That all samples come only from the present-day has long been known to limit statistical inference; there is potentially more information available if one also has access to ancient DNA so that inference is based on a time-series of historical changes in allele frequencies. We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for Bayesian inference from allele frequency time-series data based on an underlying Wright--Fisher diffusion model of evolution, through which one can infer the parameters of essentially any selection model including those with frequency-dependent effects. The chief novelty is that we show this method to be exact in the sense that it is possible to augment the state space explored by MCMC with the unobserved diffusion trajectory, even though the transition function of this diffusion is intractable. Through careful design of a proposal distribution, we describe an efficient method in which updates to the trajectory and accept/reject decisions are calculated without error. We illustrate the method on data capturing changes in coat colour over the past 20,000 years, and find evidence to support previous findings that the mutant alleles ASIP and MC1R responsible for changes in coat color have experienced very strong, possibly overdominant, selection and further provide estimates for the ages of these genes.

We demonstrate that a single 3x3 convolutional kernel can produce emergent audio effects when trained on 200 samples from a personalized corpus. We achieve this through two key techniques: (1) Conditioning Aware Kernels (CAK), where output = input + (learned_pattern x control), with a soft-gate mechanism supporting identity preservation at zero control; and (2) AuGAN (Audit GAN), which reframes adversarial training from "is this real?" to "did you apply the requested value?" Rather than learning to generate or detect forgeries, our networks cooperate to verify control application, discovering unique transformations. The learned kernel exhibits a diagonal structure creating frequency-dependent temporal shifts that are capable of producing musical effects based on input characteristics. Our results show the potential of adversarial training to discover audio transformations from minimal data, enabling new approaches to effect design.

Gravitational waves (GWs) are lensed by matter, offering a unique probe of both the large-scale structure of the Universe and the fundamental properties of GW propagation. GWs can also be affected by wave optics effects when their wavelength is comparable to the size of the lens. While this regime has been well studied in the Newtonian approximation, the role of strong gravitational fields remains largely unexplored. This is particularly relevant for lensing by intermediate and supermassive black holes (BHs), which can occur near active galactic nuclei or in compact triple systems. In this work, we analyze the lensing of GWs by a non-rotating BH and compare our results to the Newtonian point-mass approximation. We construct frequency-dependent amplification factors that incorporate strong-field effects, revealing explicit polarization mixing and absorption by the event horizon. Using a fiducial GW event, we explore key phenomenological signatures of BH lensing, highlighting new observational opportunities to probe strong gravitational fields through GW lensing.

An electro-optic modulator offers the function of modulating the propagation of light in a material with electric field and enables seamless connection between electronics-based computing and photonics-based communication. The search for materials with large electro-optic coefficients and low optical loss is critical to increase the efficiency and minimize the size of electro-optic devices. We present a semi-empirical method to compute the electro-optic coefficients of ferroelectric materials by combining first-principles density-functional theory calculations with Landau-Devonshire phenomenological modeling. We apply the method to study the electro-optic constants, also called Pockels coefficients, of three paradigmatic ferroelectric oxides: BaTiO3, LiNbO3, and LiTaO3. We present their temperature-, frequency- and strain-dependent electro-optic tensors calculated using our method. The predicted electro-optic constants agree with the experimental results, where available, and provide benchmarks for experimental verification.

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correlations. Our framework augments the binomial tree with path-dependent transition probabilities estimated via Random Forest classifiers trained on high-frequency market data. This approach preserves no-arbitrage conditions while embedding real-world trading dynamics into the pricing model. Using 46,655 minute-level observations of SPY from January to June 2025, we achieve an AUC of 88.25% in forecasting one-step price movements. Order flow imbalance is identified as the most influential predictor, contributing 43.2% to feature importance. After resolving time-scaling inconsistencies in tree construction, our model yields option prices that deviate by 13.79% from Black-Scholes benchmarks, highlighting the impact of microstructure on fair value estimation. While computational limitations restrict the model to short-term derivatives, our results offer a robust, data-driven alternative to classical pricing methods grounded in empirical market behavior.

Neural network-based visuomotor policies enable robots to perform manipulation tasks but remain susceptible to perceptual attacks. For example, conventional 2D adversarial patches are effective under fixed-camera setups, where appearance is relatively consistent; however, their efficacy often diminishes under dynamic viewpoints from moving cameras, such as wrist-mounted setups, due to perspective distortions. To proactively investigate potential vulnerabilities beyond 2D patches, this work proposes a viewpoint-consistent adversarial texture optimization method for 3D objects through differentiable rendering. As optimization strategies, we employ Expectation over Transformation (EOT) with a Coarse-to-Fine (C2F) curriculum, exploiting distance-dependent frequency characteristics to induce textures effective across varying camera-object distances. We further integrate saliency-guided perturbations to redirect policy attention and design a targeted loss that persistently drives robots toward adversarial objects. Our comprehensive experiments show that the proposed method is effective under various environmental conditions, while confirming its black-box transferability and real-world applicability.

CNNs exhibit many behaviors different from humans, one of which is the capability of employing high-frequency components. This paper discusses the frequency bias phenomenon in image classification tasks: the high-frequency components are actually much less exploited than the low- and mid-frequency components. We first investigate the frequency bias phenomenon by presenting two observations on feature discrimination and learning priority. Furthermore, we hypothesize that (i) the spectral density, (ii) class consistency directly affect the frequency bias. Specifically, our investigations verify that the spectral density of datasets mainly affects the learning priority, while the class consistency mainly affects the feature discrimination.

Although native speech and music envelope following responses (EFRs) play a crucial role in auditory processing and cognition, their frequency profile, such as the dominating frequency and spectral coherence, is largely unknown. We have assumed that the auditory pathway - which transmits envelope components of speech and music to the scalp through time-varying neurophysiological processes - is a linear time-varying system, with the envelope and the multi-channel EEG responses as excitation and response, respectively. This paper investigates the transfer function of this system through two analytical techniques - time-averaged spectral responses and cross-spectral density - in the frequency domain at four different positions of the human scalp. Our findings suggest that alpha (8-11 Hz), lower gamma (53-56 Hz), and higher gamma (78-81 Hz) bands are the peak responses of the system. These frequently appearing dominant frequency responses may be the key components of familiar speech perception, maintaining attention, binding acoustic features, and memory processing. The cross-spectral density, which reflects the spatial neural coherence of the human brain, shows that 10-13 Hz, 27-29 Hz, and 62-64 Hz are common for all channel pairs. As neural coherences are frequently observed in these frequencies among native participants, we suggest that these distributed neural processes are also dominant in native speech and music perception.

Word frequency is a key variable in psycholinguistics, useful for modeling human familiarity with words even in the era of large language models (LLMs). Frequency in film subtitles has proved to be a particularly good approximation of everyday language exposure. For many languages, however, film subtitles are not easily available, or are overwhelmingly translated from English. We demonstrate that frequencies extracted from carefully processed YouTube subtitles provide an approximation comparable to, and often better than, the best currently available resources. Moreover, they are available for languages for which a high-quality subtitle or speech corpus does not exist. We use YouTube subtitles to construct frequency norms for five diverse languages, Chinese, English, Indonesian, Japanese, and Spanish, and evaluate their correlation with lexical decision time, word familiarity, and lexical complexity. In addition to being strongly correlated with two psycholinguistic variables, a simple linear regression on the new frequencies achieves a new high score on a lexical complexity prediction task in English and Japanese, surpassing both models trained on film subtitle frequencies and the LLM GPT-4. Our code, the frequency lists, fastText word embeddings, and statistical language models are freely available at https://github.com/naist-nlp/tubelex.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

Periodic signals play an important role in daily lives. Although conventional sequential models have shown remarkable success in various fields, they still come short in modeling periodicity; they either collapse, diverge or ignore details. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework inspired by Fourier series to generate periodic signals. We first decompose the given signals into multiple sines and cosines and then conditionally generate periodic signals with the output components. We have shown our model efficacy on three tasks: reconstruction, imputation and conditional generation. Our model outperforms baselines in all tasks and shows more stable and refined results.

Frequency analysis is useful for understanding the mechanisms of representation learning in neural networks (NNs). Most research in this area focuses on the learning dynamics of NNs for regression tasks, while little for classification. This study empirically investigates the latter and expands the understanding of frequency shortcuts. First, we perform experiments on synthetic datasets, designed to have a bias in different frequency bands. Our results demonstrate that NNs tend to find simple solutions for classification, and what they learn first during training depends on the most distinctive frequency characteristics, which can be either low- or high-frequencies. Second, we confirm this phenomenon on natural images. We propose a metric to measure class-wise frequency characteristics and a method to identify frequency shortcuts. The results show that frequency shortcuts can be texture-based or shape-based, depending on what best simplifies the objective. Third, we validate the transferability of frequency shortcuts on out-of-distribution (OOD) test sets. Our results suggest that frequency shortcuts can be transferred across datasets and cannot be fully avoided by larger model capacity and data augmentation. We recommend that future research should focus on effective training schemes mitigating frequency shortcut learning.

Changes in body perception influence behavior and emotion and can be induced through multisensory feedback. Auditory feedback to one's actions can trigger such alterations; however, it is unclear which individual factors modulate these effects. We employ and evaluate SoniWeight Shoes, a wearable device based on literature for altering one's weight perception through manipulated footstep sounds. In a healthy population sample across a spectrum of individuals (n=84) with varying degrees of eating disorder symptomatology, physical activity levels, body concerns, and mental imagery capacities, we explore the effects of three sound conditions (low-frequency, high-frequency and control) on extensive body perception measures (demographic, behavioral, physiological, psychological, and subjective). Analyses revealed an impact of individual differences in each of these dimensions. Besides replicating previous findings, we reveal and highlight the role of individual differences in body perception, offering avenues for personalized sonification strategies. Datasets, technical refinements, and novel body map quantification tools are provided.

We present the first systematic investigation of Martin's Law - the empirical relationship between word frequency and polysemy - in text generated by neural language models during training. Using DBSCAN clustering of contextualized embeddings as an operationalization of word senses, we analyze four Pythia models (70M-1B parameters) across 30 training checkpoints. Our results reveal a non-monotonic developmental trajectory: Martin's Law emerges around checkpoint 100, reaches peak correlation (r > 0.6) at checkpoint 104, then degrades by checkpoint 105. Smaller models (70M, 160M) experience catastrophic semantic collapse at late checkpoints, while larger models (410M, 1B) show graceful degradation. The frequency-specificity trade-off remains stable (r approx -0.3) across all models. These findings suggest that compliance with linguistic regularities in LLM-generated text is not monotonically increasing with training, but instead follows a balanced trajectory with an optimal semantic window. This work establishes a novel methodology for evaluating emergent linguistic structure in neural language models.

Survey data are self-reported data collected directly from respondents by a questionnaire or an interview and are commonly used in epidemiology. Such data are traditionally collected via a single mode (e.g. face-to-face interview alone), but use of mixed-mode designs (e.g. offering face-to-face interview or online survey) has become more common. This introduces two key challenges. First, individuals may respond differently to the same question depending on the mode; these differences due to measurement are known as 'mode effects'. Second, different individuals may participate via different modes; these differences in sample composition between modes are known as 'mode selection'. Where recognised, mode effects are often handled by straightforward approaches such as conditioning on survey mode. However, while reducing mode effects, this and other equivalent approaches may introduce collider bias in the presence of mode selection. The existence of mode effects and the consequences of na\"ive conditioning may be underappreciated in epidemiology. This paper offers a simple introduction to these challenges using directed acyclic graphs by exploring a range of possible data structures. We discuss the potential implications of using conditioning- or imputation-based approaches and outline the advantages of quantitative bias analyses for dealing with mode effects.

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually investigating each dimension of heterogeneity becomes overly cumbersome and prone to subjective human biases. We need an efficient way to search through thousands of experiments with hundreds of target covariates and hundreds of breakdown dimensions. In this paper, we propose a systematic paradigm for detecting, surfacing and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. First, we detect if treatment effect variation is present in an experiment, prior to specifying any breakdowns. Second, we surface the most relevant dimensions for heterogeneity. Finally, we characterize the heterogeneity beyond just the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) by studying the conditional distributions of the estimated individual treatment effects. We show the effectiveness of our methods using simulated data and empirical studies.

The vulnerability of deep neural networks to adversarial samples has been a major impediment to their broad applications, despite their success in various fields. Recently, some works suggested that adversarially-trained models emphasize the importance of low-frequency information to achieve higher robustness. While several attempts have been made to leverage this frequency characteristic, they have all faced the issue that applying low-pass filters directly to input images leads to irreversible loss of discriminative information and poor generalizability to datasets with distinct frequency features. This paper presents a plug-and-play module called the Frequency Preference Control Module that adaptively reconfigures the low- and high-frequency components of intermediate feature representations, providing better utilization of frequency in robust learning. Empirical studies show that our proposed module can be easily incorporated into any adversarial training framework, further improving model robustness across different architectures and datasets. Additionally, experiments were conducted to examine how the frequency bias of robust models impacts the adversarial training process and its final robustness, revealing interesting insights.

Dynamic neuroimaging data, such as emission tomography measurements of radiotracer transport in blood or cerebrospinal fluid, often exhibit diffusion-like properties. These introduce distance-dependent temporal delays, scale-differences, and stretching effects that limit the effectiveness of conventional linear modeling and decomposition methods. To address this, we present the shift- and stretch-invariant non-negative matrix factorization framework. Our approach estimates both integer and non-integer temporal shifts as well as temporal stretching, all implemented in the frequency domain, where shifts correspond to phase modifications, and where stretching is handled via zero-padding or truncation. The model is implemented in PyTorch (https://github.com/anders-s-olsen/shiftstretchNMF). We demonstrate on synthetic data and brain emission tomography data that the model is able to account for stretching to provide more detailed characterization of brain tissue structure.

Completely randomized experiments, originally developed by Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s, are still widely used in practice, even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in marketplaces, where multiple populations of agents interact strategically, leading to complex patterns of spillover effects. In this paper, we derive the finite-sample properties of tractable estimators for "Simple Multiple Randomization Designs" (SMRDs), a new class of experimental designs which account for complex spillover effects in randomized experiments. Our derivations are obtained under a natural and general form of cross-unit interference, which we call "local interference". We discuss the estimation of main effects, direct effects, and spillovers, and present associated central limit theorems.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Large language models (LLMs) can produce erroneous responses that sound fluent and convincing, raising the risk that users will rely on these responses as if they were correct. Mitigating such overreliance is a key challenge. Through a think-aloud study in which participants use an LLM-infused application to answer objective questions, we identify several features of LLM responses that shape users' reliance: explanations (supporting details for answers), inconsistencies in explanations, and sources. Through a large-scale, pre-registered, controlled experiment (N=308), we isolate and study the effects of these features on users' reliance, accuracy, and other measures. We find that the presence of explanations increases reliance on both correct and incorrect responses. However, we observe less reliance on incorrect responses when sources are provided or when explanations exhibit inconsistencies. We discuss the implications of these findings for fostering appropriate reliance on LLMs.

Given that Transformers are ubiquitous in wide tasks, interpreting their internals is a pivotal issue. Still, their particular components, feed-forward (FF) blocks, have typically been less analyzed despite their substantial parameter amounts. We analyze the input contextualization effects of FF blocks by rendering them in the attention maps as a human-friendly visualization scheme. Our experiments with both masked- and causal-language models reveal that FF networks modify the input contextualization to emphasize specific types of linguistic compositions. In addition, FF and its surrounding components tend to cancel out each other's effects, suggesting potential redundancy in the processing of the Transformer layer.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

Recent large language models have been trained on vast datasets, but also often on repeated data, either intentionally for the purpose of upweighting higher quality data, or unintentionally because data deduplication is not perfect and the model is exposed to repeated data at the sentence, paragraph, or document level. Some works have reported substantial negative performance effects of this repeated data. In this paper we attempt to study repeated data systematically and to understand its effects mechanistically. To do this, we train a family of models where most of the data is unique but a small fraction of it is repeated many times. We find a strong double descent phenomenon, in which repeated data can lead test loss to increase midway through training. A predictable range of repetition frequency leads to surprisingly severe degradation in performance. For instance, performance of an 800M parameter model can be degraded to that of a 2x smaller model (400M params) by repeating 0.1% of the data 100 times, despite the other 90% of the training tokens remaining unique. We suspect there is a range in the middle where the data can be memorized and doing so consumes a large fraction of the model's capacity, and this may be where the peak of degradation occurs. Finally, we connect these observations to recent mechanistic interpretability work - attempting to reverse engineer the detailed computations performed by the model - by showing that data repetition disproportionately damages copying and internal structures associated with generalization, such as induction heads, providing a possible mechanism for the shift from generalization to memorization. Taken together, these results provide a hypothesis for why repeating a relatively small fraction of data in large language models could lead to disproportionately large harms to performance.

In reinforcement learning from human feedback, it is common to optimize against a reward model trained to predict human preferences. Because the reward model is an imperfect proxy, optimizing its value too much can hinder ground truth performance, in accordance with Goodhart's law. This effect has been frequently observed, but not carefully measured due to the expense of collecting human preference data. In this work, we use a synthetic setup in which a fixed "gold-standard" reward model plays the role of humans, providing labels used to train a proxy reward model. We study how the gold reward model score changes as we optimize against the proxy reward model using either reinforcement learning or best-of-n sampling. We find that this relationship follows a different functional form depending on the method of optimization, and that in both cases its coefficients scale smoothly with the number of reward model parameters. We also study the effect on this relationship of the size of the reward model dataset, the number of reward model and policy parameters, and the coefficient of the KL penalty added to the reward in the reinforcement learning setup. We explore the implications of these empirical results for theoretical considerations in AI alignment.

Extending the context length of Language Models (LMs) by improving Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) has become a trend. While existing works mainly address RoPE's limitations within attention mechanism, this paper provides an analysis across nearly all parts of LMs, uncovering their adverse effects on length generalization for RoPE-based attention. Using Discrete Signal Processing theory, we show that RoPE enables periodic attention by implicitly achieving Non-Uniform Discrete Fourier Transform. However, this periodicity is undermined by the spectral damage caused by: 1) linear layers and activation functions outside of attention; 2) insufficiently trained frequency components brought by time-domain truncation. Building on our observations, we propose Fourier Position Embedding (FoPE), which enhances attention's frequency-domain properties to improve both its periodic extension and length generalization. FoPE constructs Fourier Series and zero-outs the destructive frequency components, increasing model robustness against the spectrum damage. Experiments across various model scales show that, within varying context windows, FoPE can maintain a more stable perplexity and a more consistent accuracy in a needle-in-haystack task compared to RoPE and ALiBi. Several analyses and ablations bring further support to our method and theoretical modeling.

Memorization in language models is typically treated as a homogenous phenomenon, neglecting the specifics of the memorized data. We instead model memorization as the effect of a set of complex factors that describe each sample and relate it to the model and corpus. To build intuition around these factors, we break memorization down into a taxonomy: recitation of highly duplicated sequences, reconstruction of inherently predictable sequences, and recollection of sequences that are neither. We demonstrate the usefulness of our taxonomy by using it to construct a predictive model for memorization. By analyzing dependencies and inspecting the weights of the predictive model, we find that different factors influence the likelihood of memorization differently depending on the taxonomic category.

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few studies have been conducted to investigate heterogeneous causal effects (HCEs) in graphical contexts due to the lack of statistical methods. To characterize this heterogeneity, we first conceptualize heterogeneous causal graphs (HCGs) by generalizing the causal graphical model with confounder-based interactions and multiple mediators. Such confounders with an interaction with the treatment are known as moderators. This allows us to flexibly produce HCGs given different moderators and explicitly characterize HCEs from the treatment or potential mediators on the outcome. We establish the theoretical forms of HCEs and derive their properties at the individual level in both linear and nonlinear models. An interactive structural learning is developed to estimate the complex HCGs and HCEs with confidence intervals provided. Our method is empirically justified by extensive simulations and its practical usefulness is illustrated by exploring causality among psychiatric disorders for trauma survivors.

Models of neural responses to stimuli with complex spatiotemporal correlation structure often assume that neurons are only selective for a small number of linear projections of a potentially high-dimensional input. Here we explore recent modeling approaches where the neural response depends on the quadratic form of the input rather than on its linear projection, that is, the neuron is sensitive to the local covariance structure of the signal preceding the spike. To infer this quadratic dependence in the presence of arbitrary (e.g. naturalistic) stimulus distribution, we review several inference methods, focussing in particular on two information-theory-based approaches (maximization of stimulus energy or of noise entropy) and a likelihood-based approach (Bayesian spike-triggered covariance, extensions of generalized linear models). We analyze the formal connection between the likelihood-based and information-based approaches to show how they lead to consistent inference. We demonstrate the practical feasibility of these procedures by using model neurons responding to a flickering variance stimulus.

Large Language Model (LLM) hallucinations are usually treated as defects of the model or its decoding strategy. Drawing on classical linguistics, we argue that a query's form can also shape a listener's (and model's) response. We operationalize this insight by constructing a 22-dimension query feature vector covering clause complexity, lexical rarity, and anaphora, negation, answerability, and intention grounding, all known to affect human comprehension. Using 369,837 real-world queries, we ask: Are there certain types of queries that make hallucination more likely? A large-scale analysis reveals a consistent "risk landscape": certain features such as deep clause nesting and underspecification align with higher hallucination propensity. In contrast, clear intention grounding and answerability align with lower hallucination rates. Others, including domain specificity, show mixed, dataset- and model-dependent effects. Thus, these findings establish an empirically observable query-feature representation correlated with hallucination risk, paving the way for guided query rewriting and future intervention studies.

We investigate the internal structure of language model computations using causal analysis and demonstrate two motifs: (1) a form of adaptive computation where ablations of one attention layer of a language model cause another layer to compensate (which we term the Hydra effect) and (2) a counterbalancing function of late MLP layers that act to downregulate the maximum-likelihood token. Our ablation studies demonstrate that language model layers are typically relatively loosely coupled (ablations to one layer only affect a small number of downstream layers). Surprisingly, these effects occur even in language models trained without any form of dropout. We analyse these effects in the context of factual recall and consider their implications for circuit-level attribution in language models.

Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address both issues in a continent-scale, sector-specific evaluation of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9,899 neighborhoods in 36 African countries (2002 to 2013), representative of 88% of the population. First, we use a recent dataset that measures living conditions with a machine-learned wealth index derived from contemporaneous satellite imagery, yielding a consistent panel of 6.7 km square mosaics. Second, to strengthen identification, we proxy officials' map-based placement criteria using pre-treatment daytime satellite images and fuse these with rich tabular covariates to estimate funder- and sector-specific ATEs via inverse-probability weighting. Incorporating imagery systematically shrinks effects relative to tabular-only models, indicating prior work likely overstated benefits. On average, both donors raise wealth, with larger gains for China; sector extremes in our sample include Trade and Tourism for the World Bank (+6.27 IWI points), and Emergency Response for China (+14.32). Assignment-mechanism analyses show World Bank placement is generally more predictable from imagery alone, as well as from tabular covariates. This suggests that Chinese project placements are more driven by non-visible, political, or event-driven factors than World Bank placements. To probe residual concerns about selection on observables, we also estimate within-neighborhood (unit) fixed-effects models at a spatial resolution about 450 times finer than prior fixed effects analyses, leveraging the computer-vision-imputed IWI panels; these deliver smaller but directionally consistent effects.

Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have recently gained attention as a powerful approach for continuously representing signals such as images, videos, and 3D shapes using multilayer perceptrons (MLPs). However, MLPs are known to exhibit a low-frequency bias, limiting their ability to capture high-frequency details accurately. This limitation is typically addressed by incorporating high-frequency input embeddings or specialized activation layers. In this work, we demonstrate that these embeddings and activations are often configured with hyperparameters that perform well on average but are suboptimal for specific input signals under consideration, necessitating a costly grid search to identify optimal settings. Our key observation is that the initial frequency spectrum of an untrained model's output correlates strongly with the model's eventual performance on a given target signal. Leveraging this insight, we propose frequency shifting (or FreSh), a method that selects embedding hyperparameters to align the frequency spectrum of the model's initial output with that of the target signal. We show that this simple initialization technique improves performance across various neural representation methods and tasks, achieving results comparable to extensive hyperparameter sweeps but with only marginal computational overhead compared to training a single model with default hyperparameters.

This article presents Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a tool for visualizing the model estimated by any supervised learning algorithm. Classical partial dependence plots (PDPs) help visualize the average partial relationship between the predicted response and one or more features. In the presence of substantial interaction effects, the partial response relationship can be heterogeneous. Thus, an average curve, such as the PDP, can obfuscate the complexity of the modeled relationship. Accordingly, ICE plots refine the partial dependence plot by graphing the functional relationship between the predicted response and the feature for individual observations. Specifically, ICE plots highlight the variation in the fitted values across the range of a covariate, suggesting where and to what extent heterogeneities might exist. In addition to providing a plotting suite for exploratory analysis, we include a visual test for additive structure in the data generating model. Through simulated examples and real data sets, we demonstrate how ICE plots can shed light on estimated models in ways PDPs cannot. Procedures outlined are available in the R package ICEbox.

We consider identification of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) framework in the presence of endogenous sample selection. First, we establish that the usual DiD estimand fails to recover meaningful treatment effects, even if selection and treatment assignment are independent. Next, we partially identify the ATT for individuals who are always observed post-treatment regardless of their treatment status, and derive bounds on this parameter under different sets of assumptions about the relationship between sample selection and treatment assignment. Extensions to the repeated cross-section and two-by-two comparisons in the staggered adoption case are explored. Furthermore, we provide identification results for the ATT of three additional empirically relevant latent groups by incorporating outcome mean dominance assumptions which have intuitive appeal in applications. Finally, two empirical illustrations demonstrate the approach's usefulness by revisiting (i) the effect of a job training program on earnings(Calonico & Smith, 2017) and (ii) the effect of a working-from-home policy on employee performance (Bloom, Liang, Roberts, & Ying, 2015).

Neural networks have a number of shortcomings. Amongst the severest ones is the sensitivity to distribution shifts which allows models to be easily fooled into wrong predictions by small perturbations to inputs that are often imperceivable to humans and do not have to carry semantic meaning. Adversarial training poses a partial solution to address this issue by training models on worst-case perturbations. Yet, recent work has also pointed out that the reasoning in neural networks is different from humans. Humans identify objects by shape, while neural nets mainly employ texture cues. Exemplarily, a model trained on photographs will likely fail to generalize to datasets containing sketches. Interestingly, it was also shown that adversarial training seems to favorably increase the shift toward shape bias. In this work, we revisit this observation and provide an extensive analysis of this effect on various architectures, the common ell_2- and ell_infty-training, and Transformer-based models. Further, we provide a possible explanation for this phenomenon from a frequency perspective.

This paper evaluates whether large language models (LLMs) exhibit cognitive fan effects, similar to those discovered by Anderson in humans, after being pre-trained on human textual data. We conduct two sets of in-context recall experiments designed to elicit fan effects. Consistent with human results, we find that LLM recall uncertainty, measured via token probability, is influenced by the fan effect. Our results show that removing uncertainty disrupts the observed effect. The experiments suggest the fan effect is consistent whether the fan value is induced in-context or in the pre-training data. Finally, these findings provide in-silico evidence that fan effects and typicality are expressions of the same phenomena.

Understanding what kinds of factual knowledge large language models (LLMs) memorize is essential for evaluating their reliability and limitations. Entity-based QA is a common framework for analyzing non-verbatim memorization, but typical evaluations query each entity using a single canonical surface form, making it difficult to disentangle fact memorization from access through a particular name. We introduce RedirectQA, an entity-based QA dataset that uses Wikipedia redirect information to associate Wikidata factual triples with categorized surface forms for each entity, including alternative names, abbreviations, spelling variants, and common erroneous forms. Across 13 LLMs, we examine surface-conditioned factual memorization and find that prediction outcomes often change when only the entity surface form changes. This inconsistency is category-dependent: models are more robust to minor orthographic variations than to larger lexical variations such as aliases and abbreviations. Frequency analyses further suggest that both entity- and surface-level frequencies are associated with accuracy, and that entity frequency often contributes beyond surface frequency. Overall, factual memorization appears neither purely surface-specific nor fully surface-invariant, highlighting the importance of surface-form diversity in evaluating non-verbatim memorization.

Recent advances in Conditional Diffusion Models have led to substantial capabilities in various domains. However, understanding the impact of variations in the initial seed vector remains an underexplored area of concern. Particularly, latent-based diffusion models display inconsistencies in image generation under standard conditions when initialized with suboptimal initial seed vectors. To understand the impact of the initial seed vector on generated samples, we propose a reliability evaluation framework that evaluates the generated samples of a diffusion model when the initial seed vector is subjected to various synthetic shifts. Our results indicate that slight manipulations to the initial seed vector of the state-of-the-art Stable Diffusion (Rombach et al., 2022) can lead to significant disturbances in the generated samples, consequently creating images without the effect of conditioning variables. In contrast, GLIDE (Nichol et al., 2022) stands out in generating reliable samples even when the initial seed vector is transformed. Thus, our study sheds light on the importance of the selection and the impact of the initial seed vector in the latent-based diffusion model.

Estimating causal effect using machine learning (ML) algorithms can help to relax functional form assumptions if used within appropriate frameworks. However, most of these frameworks assume settings with cross-sectional data, whereas researchers often have access to panel data, which in traditional methods helps to deal with unobserved heterogeneity between units. In this paper, we explore how we can adapt double/debiased machine learning (DML) (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) for panel data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. This adaptation is challenging because DML's cross-fitting procedure assumes independent data and the unobserved heterogeneity is not necessarily additively separable in settings with nonlinear observed confounding. We assess the performance of several intuitively appealing estimators in a variety of simulations. While we find violations of the cross-fitting assumptions to be largely inconsequential for the accuracy of the effect estimates, many of the considered methods fail to adequately account for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. However, we find that using predictive models based on the correlated random effects approach (Mundlak, 1978) within DML leads to accurate coefficient estimates across settings, given a sample size that is large relative to the number of observed confounders. We also show that the influence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the observed confounders plays a significant role for the performance of most alternative methods.

A core goal of computational social science is to discover interpretable differences in how language varies across outcomes of interest, such as political affiliation or instructional quality. Recent LLM-based hypothesis generation methods describe such differences in natural language, but select for globally discriminative patterns without accounting for covariates that shape the data based on researchers' domain knowledge. When covariates are ignored, selected patterns can reflect confounds rather than differences of substantive interest. We introduce conditional hypothesis generation, a framework that incorporates researcher-specified covariates to steer hypothesis discovery toward differences that hold within relevant subgroups. Two challenges arise: the target subgroup may be underrepresented (stratum imbalance), and the direction of a difference may reverse across subgroups (sign reversal). We propose two econometrics-inspired methods: one introduces feature--covariate interactions to detect sign reversals, and the other applies within-stratum demeaning and inverse-frequency reweighting to equalize underrepresented strata. Synthetic experiments show each method outperforms global baselines in its targeted setting, and expert evaluation on two real-world datasets confirms that covariate-aware generation surfaces more useful hypotheses within relevant subgroups.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Consider a random uniform sample of n points in a compact region A of Euclidean d-space, d geq 2, with a smooth or (when d=2) polygonal boundary. Fix k bf N. Let T_{n,k} be the threshold r at which the geometric graph on these n vertices with distance parameter r becomes k-connected. We show that if d=2 then n (pi/|A|) T_{n,1}^2 - log n is asymptotically standard Gumbel. For (d,k) neq (2,1), it is n (theta_d/|A|) T_{n,k}^d - (2-2/d) log n - (4-2k-2/d) log log n that converges in distribution to a nondegenerate limit, where theta_d is the volume of the unit ball. The limit is Gumbel with scale parameter 2 except when (d,k)=(2,2) where the limit is two component extreme value distributed. The different cases reflect the fact that boundary effects are more more important in some cases than others. We also give similar results for the largest k-nearest neighbour link U_{n,k} in the sample, and show T_{n,k}=U_{n,k} with high probability. We provide estimates on rates of convergence and give similar results for Poisson samples in A. Finally, we give similar results even for non-uniform samples, with a less explicit sequence of centring constants.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

Previous work has highlighted that existing post-hoc explanation methods exhibit disparities in explanation fidelity (across 'race' and 'gender' as sensitive attributes), and while a large body of work focuses on mitigating these issues at the explanation metric level, the role of the data generating process and black box model in relation to explanation disparities remains largely unexplored. Accordingly, through both simulations as well as experiments on a real-world dataset, we specifically assess challenges to explanation disparities that originate from properties of the data: limited sample size, covariate shift, concept shift, omitted variable bias, and challenges based on model properties: inclusion of the sensitive attribute and appropriate functional form. Through controlled simulation analyses, our study demonstrates that increased covariate shift, concept shift, and omission of covariates increase explanation disparities, with the effect pronounced higher for neural network models that are better able to capture the underlying functional form in comparison to linear models. We also observe consistent findings regarding the effect of concept shift and omitted variable bias on explanation disparities in the Adult income dataset. Overall, results indicate that disparities in model explanations can also depend on data and model properties. Based on this systematic investigation, we provide recommendations for the design of explanation methods that mitigate undesirable disparities.

Deep neural networks have shown promise for music audio signal processing applications, often surpassing prior approaches, particularly as end-to-end models in the waveform domain. Yet results to date have tended to be constrained by low sample rates, noise, narrow domains of signal types, and/or lack of parameterized controls (i.e. "knobs"), making their suitability for professional audio engineering workflows still lacking. This work expands on prior research published on modeling nonlinear time-dependent signal processing effects associated with music production by means of a deep neural network, one which includes the ability to emulate the parameterized settings you would see on an analog piece of equipment, with the goal of eventually producing commercially viable, high quality audio, i.e. 44.1 kHz sampling rate at 16-bit resolution. The results in this paper highlight progress in modeling these effects through architecture and optimization changes, towards increasing computational efficiency, lowering signal-to-noise ratio, and extending to a larger variety of nonlinear audio effects. Toward these ends, the strategies employed involved a three-pronged approach: model speed, model accuracy, and model generalizability. Most of the presented methods provide marginal or no increase in output accuracy over the original model, with the exception of dataset manipulation. We found that limiting the audio content of the dataset, for example using datasets of just a single instrument, provided a significant improvement in model accuracy over models trained on more general datasets.

Although the design and application of audio effects is well understood, the inverse problem of removing these effects is significantly more challenging and far less studied. Recently, deep learning has been applied to audio effect removal; however, existing approaches have focused on narrow formulations considering only one effect or source type at a time. In realistic scenarios, multiple effects are applied with varying source content. This motivates a more general task, which we refer to as general purpose audio effect removal. We developed a dataset for this task using five audio effects across four different sources and used it to train and evaluate a set of existing architectures. We found that no single model performed optimally on all effect types and sources. To address this, we introduced RemFX, an approach designed to mirror the compositionality of applied effects. We first trained a set of the best-performing effect-specific removal models and then leveraged an audio effect classification model to dynamically construct a graph of our models at inference. We found our approach to outperform single model baselines, although examples with many effects present remain challenging.

Neural networks often suffer from catastrophic interference (CI): performance on previously learned tasks drops off significantly when learning a new task. This contrasts strongly with humans, who can sequentially learn new tasks without appreciably forgetting previous tasks. Prior work has explored various techniques for mitigating CI such as regularization, rehearsal, generative replay, and distillation methods. The current work takes a different approach, one guided by cognitive science research showing that in naturalistic environments, the probability of encountering a task decreases as a power-law of the time since it was last performed. We argue that a realistic evaluation of techniques for the mitigation of CI should be performed in simulated naturalistic learning environments. Thus, we evaluate the extent of mitigation of CI when training simple rehearsal-based methods in power-law environments similar to the ones humans face. Our work explores this novel rehearsal-based approach for a domain-incremental task: learning permutations in the MNIST task. We compare our rehearsal environment with other baselines to show its efficacy in promoting continual learning. Additionally, we investigate whether this environment shows forward facilitation, i.e., faster learning of later tasks. Next, we explore the robustness of our learning environment to the number of tasks, model size, and amount of data rehearsed after each task. Notably, our results show that the performance is comparable or superior to that of models trained using popular regularization methods and also to rehearsals in non-power-law environments. The benefits of this training paradigm include simplicity and the lack of a need for extra neural circuitry. In addition, because our method is orthogonal to other methods, future research can combine training in power-law environments with other continual learning mechanisms.

Exposure to large language model output is rapidly increasing. How will seeing AI-generated ideas affect human ideas? We conducted an experiment (800+ participants, 40+ countries) where participants viewed creative ideas that were from ChatGPT or prior experimental participants and then brainstormed their own idea. We varied the number of AI-generated examples (none, low, or high exposure) and if the examples were labeled as 'AI' (disclosure). Our dynamic experiment design -- ideas from prior participants in an experimental condition are used as stimuli for future participants in the same experimental condition -- mimics the interdependent process of cultural creation: creative ideas are built upon prior ideas. Hence, we capture the compounding effects of having LLMs 'in the culture loop'. We find that high AI exposure (but not low AI exposure) did not affect the creativity of individual ideas but did increase the average amount and rate of change of collective idea diversity. AI made ideas different, not better. There were no main effects of disclosure. We also found that self-reported creative people were less influenced by knowing an idea was from AI, and that participants were more likely to knowingly adopt AI ideas when the task was difficult. Our findings suggest that introducing AI ideas into society may increase collective diversity but not individual creativity.

Despite the non-autoregressive potential of diffusion language models (dLLMs), existing decoding strategies demonstrate positional bias, failing to fully unlock the potential of arbitrary generation. In this work, we delve into the inherent spectral characteristics of dLLMs and present the first frequency-domain analysis showing that low-frequency components in hidden states primarily encode global structural information and long-range dependencies, while high-frequency components are responsible for characterizing local details. Based on this observation, we propose FourierSampler, which leverages a frequency-domain sliding window mechanism to dynamically guide the model to achieve a "structure-to-detail" generation. FourierSampler outperforms other inference enhancement strategies on LLADA and SDAR, achieving relative improvements of 20.4% on LLaDA1.5-8B and 16.0% on LLaDA-8B-Instruct. It notably surpasses similarly sized autoregressive models like Llama3.1-8B-Instruct.

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is essential for aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with user intent, yet it is believed to suppress generative diversity. Although this reduction is frequently referenced, formal empirical testing of the phenomenon remains limited. The expressiveness of LLMs by itself was addressed by multiple prior methods. Their varying perspectives suggest that deeper analysis could yield further improvements. In this study, we attribute the decline to two primary drivers: the neglect of low-frequency patterns within fine-tuning datasets and the forgetting of preexisting knowledge. Motivated by our theoretical analysis, we develop Tempered Focal (TOFU) loss, a novel objective that addresses both stated challenges simultaneously. Our extensive evaluation confirms at scale that generation breadth narrows after SFT and strengthens the hypothesis explaining this effect. Across multiple models and benchmarks, we demonstrate that TOFU enhances output diversity while preserving high response quality, offering a principled approach to SFT.

While textual frequency has been validated as relevant to human cognition in reading speed, its relatedness to Large Language Models (LLMs) is seldom studied. We propose a novel research direction in terms of textual data frequency, which is an understudied topic, to the best of our knowledge. Our framework is composed of three units. First, this paper proposes Textual Frequency Law (TFL), which indicates that frequent textual data should be preferred for LLMs for both prompting and fine-tuning. Since many LLMs are closed-source in their training data, we propose using online resources to estimate the sentence-level frequency. We then utilize an input paraphraser to paraphrase the input into a more frequent textual expression. Next, we propose Textual Frequency Distillation (TFD) by querying LLMs to conduct story completion by further extending the sentences in the datasets, and the resulting corpora are used to adjust the initial estimation. Finally, we propose Curriculum Textual Frequency Training (CTFT) that fine-tunes LLMs in an increasing order of sentence-level frequency. Experiments are conducted on our curated dataset Textual Frequency Paired Dataset (TFPD) on math reasoning, machine translation, commonsense reasoning and agentic tool calling. Results show the effectiveness of our framework.

Using observations from GMRT and FAST, we conducted multi-wavelength studies on PSR J1948+3540 and analyzed its intensity modulation characteristics in detail. We found that the intensity modulation of this pulsar exhibits broad low-frequency modulation features. The modulation frequency/period is time-dependent, but the dominant modulation component varies with the observing frequency. Specifically, at low frequencies, the modulation is dominated by the first half of the middle component, while at high frequencies, it is dominated by the second half of the middle component. Spectral analysis revealed that the intensities of the leading and trailing components vary with the observing frequency, but the middle component does not change significantly. Besides, the polarization analyses reveal that the peak of the radiation intensity is located in the latter half of the middle component, whereas the linear polarization is dominant in the former half. However, due to the low degree of linear polarization, the change of the dominant modulation component with the observed frequency is not caused by the variation in linear polarization. The phenomenon of the dominant modulation component varying with observing frequency has not been reported before and remains difficult to understand within the current theoretical framework.

Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for representing signals such as images, audio, and 3D scenes. However, existing INR frameworks -- including MLPs with Fourier features, SIREN, and multiresolution hash grids -- implicitly assume a global and stationary spectral basis. This assumption is fundamentally misaligned with real-world signals whose frequency characteristics vary significantly across space, exhibiting local high-frequency textures, smooth regions, and frequency drift phenomena. We propose Neural Spectral Transport Representation (NSTR), the first INR framework that explicitly models a spatially varying local frequency field. NSTR introduces a learnable frequency transport equation, a PDE that governs how local spectral compositions evolve across space. Given a learnable local spectrum field S(x) and a frequency transport network F_θ enforcing nabla S(x) approx F_θ(x, S(x)), NSTR reconstructs signals by spatially modulating a compact set of global sinusoidal bases. This formulation enables strong local adaptivity and offers a new level of interpretability via visualizing frequency flows. Experiments on 2D image regression, audio reconstruction, and implicit 3D geometry show that NSTR achieves significantly better accuracy-parameter trade-offs than SIREN, Fourier-feature MLPs, and Instant-NGP. NSTR requires fewer global frequencies, converges faster, and naturally explains signal structure through spectral transport fields. We believe NSTR opens a new direction in INR research by introducing explicit modeling of space-varying spectrum.

As large language models are increasingly responsible for online content, concerns arise about the impact of repeatedly processing their own outputs. Inspired by the "broken telephone" effect in chained human communication, this study investigates whether LLMs similarly distort information through iterative generation. Through translation-based experiments, we find that distortion accumulates over time, influenced by language choice and chain complexity. While degradation is inevitable, it can be mitigated through strategic prompting techniques. These findings contribute to discussions on the long-term effects of AI-mediated information propagation, raising important questions about the reliability of LLM-generated content in iterative workflows.

We characterise the dynamics of neuronal activity, in terms of field theory, using neural units placed on a 2D-lattice modelling the cortical surface. The electrical activity of neuronal units was analysed with the aim of deriving a neural field model with a simple functional form that still able to predict or reproduce empirical findings. Each neural unit was modelled using a neural mass and the accompanying field theory was derived in the continuum limit. The field theory comprised coupled (real) Klein-Gordon fields, where predictions of the model fall within the range of experimental findings. These predictions included the frequency spectrum of electric activity measured from the cortex, which was derived using an equipartition of energy over eigenfunctions of the neural fields. Moreover, the neural field model was invariant, within a set of parameters, to the dynamical system used to model each neuronal mass. Specifically, topologically equivalent dynamical systems resulted in the same neural field model when connected in a lattice; indicating that the fields derived could be read as a canonical cortical field theory. We specifically investigated non-dispersive fields that provide a structure for the coding (or representation) of afferent information. Further elaboration of the ensuing neural field theory, including the effect of dispersive forces, could be of importance in the understanding of the cortical processing of information.

Knowledge-dependent tasks typically use two sources of knowledge: parametric, learned at training time, and contextual, given as a passage at inference time. To understand how models use these sources together, we formalize the problem of knowledge conflicts, where the contextual information contradicts the learned information. Analyzing the behaviour of popular models, we measure their over-reliance on memorized information (the cause of hallucinations), and uncover important factors that exacerbate this behaviour. Lastly, we propose a simple method to mitigate over-reliance on parametric knowledge, which minimizes hallucination, and improves out-of-distribution generalization by 4%-7%. Our findings demonstrate the importance for practitioners to evaluate model tendency to hallucinate rather than read, and show that our mitigation strategy encourages generalization to evolving information (i.e., time-dependent queries). To encourage these practices, we have released our framework for generating knowledge conflicts.

Advances in large language models (LLMs) provide new opportunities in healthcare for improved patient care, clinical decision-making, and enhancement of physician and administrator workflows. However, the potential of these models importantly depends on their ability to generalize effectively across clinical environments and populations, a challenge often underestimated in early development. To better understand reasons for these challenges and inform mitigation approaches, we evaluated ClinicLLM, an LLM trained on [HOSPITAL]'s clinical notes, analyzing its performance on 30-day all-cause readmission prediction focusing on variability across hospitals and patient characteristics. We found poorer generalization particularly in hospitals with fewer samples, among patients with government and unspecified insurance, the elderly, and those with high comorbidities. To understand reasons for lack of generalization, we investigated sample sizes for fine-tuning, note content (number of words per note), patient characteristics (comorbidity level, age, insurance type, borough), and health system aspects (hospital, all-cause 30-day readmission, and mortality rates). We used descriptive statistics and supervised classification to identify features. We found that, along with sample size, patient age, number of comorbidities, and the number of words in notes are all important factors related to generalization. Finally, we compared local fine-tuning (hospital specific), instance-based augmented fine-tuning and cluster-based fine-tuning for improving generalization. Among these, local fine-tuning proved most effective, increasing AUC by 0.25% to 11.74% (most helpful in settings with limited data). Overall, this study provides new insights for enhancing the deployment of large language models in the societally important domain of healthcare, and improving their performance for broader populations.

When trying to gain better visibility into a machine learning model in order to understand and mitigate the associated risks, a potentially valuable source of evidence is: which training examples most contribute to a given behavior? Influence functions aim to answer a counterfactual: how would the model's parameters (and hence its outputs) change if a given sequence were added to the training set? While influence functions have produced insights for small models, they are difficult to scale to large language models (LLMs) due to the difficulty of computing an inverse-Hessian-vector product (IHVP). We use the Eigenvalue-corrected Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (EK-FAC) approximation to scale influence functions up to LLMs with up to 52 billion parameters. In our experiments, EK-FAC achieves similar accuracy to traditional influence function estimators despite the IHVP computation being orders of magnitude faster. We investigate two algorithmic techniques to reduce the cost of computing gradients of candidate training sequences: TF-IDF filtering and query batching. We use influence functions to investigate the generalization patterns of LLMs, including the sparsity of the influence patterns, increasing abstraction with scale, math and programming abilities, cross-lingual generalization, and role-playing behavior. Despite many apparently sophisticated forms of generalization, we identify a surprising limitation: influences decay to near-zero when the order of key phrases is flipped. Overall, influence functions give us a powerful new tool for studying the generalization properties of LLMs.

Neural operators learn to map initial conditions to the terminal solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), providing a surrogate for the full operator mapping. This enables rapid prediction across different input configurations. While recent neural operator architectures have demonstrated strong performance on diverse PDE tasks, their behavior under structured distribution shifts remains insufficiently understood. To investigate this, we study operator learning in a wave propagation setting governed by a one-dimensional variable-coefficient wave equation, using two representative architectures, the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) and the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet). To examine their generalization under distribution shifts, we consider structured out-of-distribution (OOD) settings that independently vary input frequency and coefficient smoothness. The results show that under smoothness shifts, both models maintain stable performance, with FNO achieving lower error. In contrast, under frequency shifts, FNO exhibits a sharp increase in error under unseen high-frequency inputs, whereas DeepONet shows milder degradation despite higher overall error. Our analysis reveals that these differences arise from how each architecture represents and responds to variations in frequency structure. Together, these findings highlight a fundamental gap between strong in-distribution performance and generalization under distribution shifts in operator learning, underscoring the role of architectural representation bias in developing more reliable neural operators for physics-based PDE simulations beyond the training distribution.

Large language models (LLMs) have made remarkable progress in various domains, yet they often suffer from repetitive text generation, a phenomenon we refer to as the "Repeat Curse". While previous studies have proposed decoding strategies to mitigate repetition, the underlying mechanism behind this issue remains insufficiently explored. In this work, we investigate the root causes of repetition in LLMs through the lens of mechanistic interpretability. Inspired by recent advances in Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs), which enable monosemantic feature extraction, we propose a novel approach, "Duplicatus Charm", to induce and analyze the Repeat Curse. Our method systematically identifies "Repetition Features" -the key model activations responsible for generating repetitive outputs. First, we locate the layers most involved in repetition through logit analysis. Next, we extract and stimulate relevant features using SAE-based activation manipulation. To validate our approach, we construct a repetition dataset covering token and paragraph level repetitions and introduce an evaluation pipeline to quantify the influence of identified repetition features. Furthermore, by deactivating these features, we have effectively mitigated the Repeat Curse.

Interpretability methods for large language models (LLMs) typically derive directions from textual supervision, which can lack external grounding. We propose using human brain activity not as a training signal but as a coordinate system for reading and steering LLM states. Using the SMN4Lang MEG dataset, we construct a word-level brain atlas of phase-locking value (PLV) patterns and extract latent axes via ICA. We validate axes with independent lexica and NER-based labels (POS/log-frequency used as sanity checks), then train lightweight adapters that map LLM hidden states to these brain axes without fine-tuning the LLM. Steering along the resulting brain-derived directions yields a robust lexical (frequency-linked) axis in a mid TinyLlama layer, surviving perplexity-matched controls, and a brain-vs-text probe comparison shows larger log-frequency shifts (relative to the text probe) with lower perplexity for the brain axis. A function/content axis (axis 13) shows consistent steering in TinyLlama, Qwen2-0.5B, and GPT-2, with PPL-matched text-level corroboration. Layer-4 effects in TinyLlama are large but inconsistent, so we treat them as secondary (Appendix). Axis structure is stable when the atlas is rebuilt without GPT embedding-change features or with word2vec embeddings (|r|=0.64-0.95 across matched axes), reducing circularity concerns. Exploratory fMRI anchoring suggests potential alignment for embedding change and log frequency, but effects are sensitive to hemodynamic modeling assumptions and are treated as population-level evidence only. These results support a new interface: neurophysiology-grounded axes provide interpretable and controllable handles for LLM behavior.

Information ecosystems increasingly shape how people internalize exposure to adverse digital experiences, raising concerns about the long-term consequences for information health. In modern search and recommendation systems, ranking and personalization policies play a central role in shaping such exposure and its long-term effects on users. To study these effects in a controlled setting, we present FrameRef, a large-scale dataset of 1,073,740 systematically reframed claims across five framing dimensions: authoritative, consensus, emotional, prestige, and sensationalist, and propose a simulation-based framework for modeling sequential information exposure and reinforcement dynamics characteristic of ranking and recommendation systems. Within this framework, we construct framing-sensitive agent personas by fine-tuning language models with framing-conditioned loss attenuation, inducing targeted biases while preserving overall task competence. Using Monte Carlo trajectory sampling, we show that small, systematic shifts in acceptance and confidence can compound over time, producing substantial divergence in cumulative information health trajectories. Human evaluation further confirms that FrameRef's generated framings measurably affect human judgment. Together, our dataset and framework provide a foundation for systematic information health research through simulation, complementing and informing responsible human-centered research. We release FrameRef, code, documentation, human evaluation data, and persona adapter models at https://github.com/infosenselab/frameref.

The Identifiable Victim Effect (IVE) - the tendency to allocate greater resources to a specific, narratively described victim than to a statistically characterized group facing equivalent hardship - is one of the most robust findings in moral psychology and behavioural economics. As large language models (LLMs) assume consequential roles in humanitarian triage, automated grant evaluation, and content moderation, a critical question arises: do these systems inherit the affective irrationalities present in human moral reasoning? We present the first systematic, large-scale empirical investigation of the IVE in LLMs, comprising N=51,955 validated API trials across 16 frontier models spanning nine organizational lineages (Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, DeepSeek, xAI, Alibaba, IBM, and Moonshot). Using a suite of ten experiments - porting and extending canonical paradigms from Small et al. (2007) and Kogut and Ritov (2005) - we find that the IVE is prevalent but strongly modulated by alignment training. Instruction-tuned models exhibit extreme IVE (Cohen's d up to 1.56), while reasoning-specialized models invert the effect (down to d=-0.85). The pooled effect (d=0.223, p=2e-6) is approximately twice the single-victim human meta-analytic baseline (dapprox0.10) reported by Lee and Feeley (2016) - and likely exceeds the overall human pooled effect by a larger margin, given that the group-victim human effect is near zero. Standard Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting - contrary to its role as a deliberative corrective - nearly triples the IVE effect size (from d=0.15 to d=0.41), while only utilitarian CoT reliably eliminates it. We further document psychophysical numbing, perfect quantity neglect, and marginal in-group/out-group cultural bias, with implications for AI deployment in humanitarian and ethical decision-making contexts.

We propose MusicRL, the first music generation system finetuned from human feedback. Appreciation of text-to-music models is particularly subjective since the concept of musicality as well as the specific intention behind a caption are user-dependent (e.g. a caption such as "upbeat work-out music" can map to a retro guitar solo or a techno pop beat). Not only this makes supervised training of such models challenging, but it also calls for integrating continuous human feedback in their post-deployment finetuning. MusicRL is a pretrained autoregressive MusicLM (Agostinelli et al., 2023) model of discrete audio tokens finetuned with reinforcement learning to maximise sequence-level rewards. We design reward functions related specifically to text-adherence and audio quality with the help from selected raters, and use those to finetune MusicLM into MusicRL-R. We deploy MusicLM to users and collect a substantial dataset comprising 300,000 pairwise preferences. Using Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), we train MusicRL-U, the first text-to-music model that incorporates human feedback at scale. Human evaluations show that both MusicRL-R and MusicRL-U are preferred to the baseline. Ultimately, MusicRL-RU combines the two approaches and results in the best model according to human raters. Ablation studies shed light on the musical attributes influencing human preferences, indicating that text adherence and quality only account for a part of it. This underscores the prevalence of subjectivity in musical appreciation and calls for further involvement of human listeners in the finetuning of music generation models.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

During both pretraining and fine-tuning, Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained on trillions of tokens of text of widely varying quality. Both phases of training typically involve heuristically filtering out ``low-quality'' or noisy training samples, yet little is known quantitatively about how the type or intensity of noise affects downstream performance. In this work, we study how noise in chain of thought (CoT) impacts task performance in the highly-controlled setting of algorithmically solvable tasks. First, we develop the Traced Integer (TInt) framework to generate highly customizable noised execution traces for any arithmetic function on lists of integers. We then define two types of noise: static noise, a local form of noise which is applied after the CoT trace is computed, and dynamic noise, a global form of noise which propagates errors in the trace as it is computed. We then evaluate the test performance of pretrained models both prompted and fine-tuned on noised datasets with varying levels of dataset contamination and intensity. We find fine-tuned models are extremely robust to high levels of static noise but struggle significantly more with lower levels of dynamic noise. In contrast, few-shot prompted models appear more sensitive to even static noise. We conclude with a discussion of how our findings impact noise filtering best-practices, in particular emphasizing the importance of removing samples containing destructive dynamic noise with global errors.

Human processing of idioms relies on understanding the contextual sentences in which idioms occur, as well as language-intrinsic features such as frequency and speaker-intrinsic factors like familiarity. While LLMs have shown high performance on idiomaticity detection tasks, this success may be attributed to reasoning shortcuts in existing datasets. To this end, we construct a novel, controlled contrastive dataset designed to test whether LLMs can effectively use context to disambiguate idiomatic meaning. Additionally, we explore how collocational frequency and sentence probability influence model performance. Our findings reveal that LLMs often fail to resolve idiomaticity when it is required to attend to the surrounding context, and that models perform better on sentences that have higher likelihood. The collocational frequency of expressions also impacts performance. We make our code and dataset publicly available.

In observational settings where treatment and outcome share unmeasured confounders but an observed mediator remains unconfounded, the front-door (FD) adjustment identifies causal effects through the mediator. We study the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) under FD identification and introduce two debiased learners: FD-DR-Learner and FD-R-Learner. Both attain fast, quasi-oracle rates (i.e., performance comparable to an oracle that knows the nuisances) even when nuisance functions converge as slowly as n^-1/4. We provide error analyses establishing debiasedness and demonstrate robust empirical performance in synthetic studies and a real-world case study of primary seat-belt laws using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) dataset. Together, these results indicate that the proposed learners deliver reliable and sample-efficient HTE estimates in FD scenarios. The implementation is available at https://github.com/yonghanjung/FD-CATE. Keywords: Front-door adjustment; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Debiased learning; Quasi-oracle rates; Causal inference.

Instruction-based image editing through natural language has emerged as a powerful paradigm for intuitive visual manipulation. While recent models achieve impressive results on single edits, they suffer from severe quality degradation under multi-turn editing. Through systematic analysis, we identify progressive loss of high-frequency information as the primary cause of this quality degradation. We present FreqEdit, a training-free framework that enables stable editing across 10+ consecutive iterations. Our approach comprises three synergistic components: (1) high-frequency feature injection from reference velocity fields to preserve fine-grained details, (2) an adaptive injection strategy that spatially modulates injection strength for precise region-specific control, and (3) a path compensation mechanism that periodically recalibrates the editing trajectory to prevent over-constraint. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FreqEdit achieves superior performance in both identity preservation and instruction following compared to seven state-of-the-art baselines.

In this work, we aim to reconcile several apparently contradictory observations in market microstructure: is the famous "square-root law" of metaorder impact, which decays with time, compatible with the random-walk nature of prices and the linear impact of order imbalances? Can one entirely explain the volatility of prices as resulting from the flow of uninformed metaorders that mechanically impact them? We introduce a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes and durations, which all impact prices as a square-root of volume but with a subsequent time decay. We show that, as in the original propagator model, price diffusion is ensured by the long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders. In order to account for the effect of strongly fluctuating volumes q of individual trades, we further introduce two q-dependent exponents, which allow us to describe how the moments of generalized volume imbalance and the correlation between price changes and generalized order flow imbalance scale with T. We predict in particular that the corresponding power-laws depend in a non-monotonic fashion on a parameter a, which allows one to put the same weight on all child orders or to overweight large ones, a behaviour that is clearly borne out by empirical data. We also predict that the correlation between price changes and volume imbalances should display a maximum as a function of a, which again matches observations. Such noteworthy agreement between theory and data suggests that our framework correctly captures the basic mechanism at the heart of price formation, namely the average impact of metaorders. We argue that our results support the "Order-Driven" theory of excess volatility, and are at odds with the idea that a "Fundamental" component accounts for a large share of the volatility of financial markets.

Understanding and manipulating the causal generation mechanisms in language models is essential for controlling their behavior. Previous work has primarily relied on techniques such as representation surgery -- e.g., model ablations or manipulation of linear subspaces tied to specific concepts -- to intervene on these models. To understand the impact of interventions precisely, it is useful to examine counterfactuals -- e.g., how a given sentence would have appeared had it been generated by the model following a specific intervention. We highlight that counterfactual reasoning is conceptually distinct from interventions, as articulated in Pearl's causal hierarchy. Based on this observation, we propose a framework for generating true string counterfactuals by reformulating language models as Generalized Structural-equation. Models using the Gumbel-max trick. This allows us to model the joint distribution over original strings and their counterfactuals resulting from the same instantiation of the sampling noise. We develop an algorithm based on hindsight Gumbel sampling that allows us to infer the latent noise variables and generate counterfactuals of observed strings. Our experiments demonstrate that the approach produces meaningful counterfactuals while at the same time showing that commonly used intervention techniques have considerable undesired side effects.

Low-rank approximation techniques have become the de facto standard for fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) due to their reduced computational and memory requirements. This paper investigates the effectiveness of these methods in capturing the shift of fine-tuning datasets from the initial pre-trained data distribution. Our findings reveal that there are cases in which low-rank fine-tuning falls short in learning such shifts. This, in turn, produces non-negligible side effects, especially when fine-tuning is adopted for toxicity mitigation in pre-trained models, or in scenarios where it is important to provide fair models. Through comprehensive empirical evidence on several models, datasets, and tasks, we show that low-rank fine-tuning inadvertently preserves undesirable biases and toxic behaviors. We also show that this extends to sequential decision-making tasks, emphasizing the need for careful evaluation to promote responsible LLMs development.

Audio effects are extensively used at every stage of audio and music content creation. The majority of differentiable audio effects modeling approaches fall into the black-box or gray-box paradigms; and most models have been proposed and applied to nonlinear effects like guitar amplifiers, overdrive, distortion, fuzz and compressor. Although a plethora of architectures have been introduced for the task at hand there is still lack of understanding on the state of the art, since most publications experiment with one type of nonlinear audio effect and a very small number of devices. In this work we aim to shed light on the audio effects modeling landscape by comparing black-box and gray-box architectures on a large number of nonlinear audio effects, identifying the most suitable for a wide range of devices. In the process, we also: introduce time-varying gray-box models and propose models for compressor, distortion and fuzz, publish a large dataset for audio effects research - ToneTwist AFx https://github.com/mcomunita/tonetwist-afx-dataset - that is also the first open to community contributions, evaluate models on a variety of metrics and conduct extensive subjective evaluation. Code https://github.com/mcomunita/nablafx and supplementary material https://github.com/mcomunita/nnlinafx-supp-material are also available.

Diffusion models are a class of generative models that learn to synthesize samples by inverting a diffusion process that gradually maps data into noise. While these models have enjoyed great success recently, a full theoretical understanding of their observed properties is still lacking, in particular, their weak sensitivity to the choice of noise family and the role of adequate scheduling of noise levels for good synthesis. By identifying a correspondence between diffusion models and a well-known paradigm in cognitive science known as serial reproduction, whereby human agents iteratively observe and reproduce stimuli from memory, we show how the aforementioned properties of diffusion models can be explained as a natural consequence of this correspondence. We then complement our theoretical analysis with simulations that exhibit these key features. Our work highlights how classic paradigms in cognitive science can shed light on state-of-the-art machine learning problems.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in image synthesis, but the generated high-quality images raise concerns about potential malicious use. Existing detectors often struggle to capture discriminative clues across different models and settings, limiting their generalization to unseen diffusion models and robustness to various perturbations. To address this issue, we observe that diffusion-generated images exhibit progressively larger differences from natural real images across low- to high-frequency bands. Based on this insight, we propose a simple yet effective representation by enhancing the Frequency Forgery Clue (F^2C) across all frequency bands. Specifically, we introduce a frequency-selective function which serves as a weighted filter to the Fourier spectrum, suppressing less discriminative bands while enhancing more informative ones. This approach, grounded in a comprehensive analysis of frequency-based differences between natural real and diffusion-generated images, enables general detection of images from unseen diffusion models and provides robust resilience to various perturbations. Extensive experiments on various diffusion-generated image datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art detectors with superior generalization and robustness.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

Large language models are prone to hallucinating factually incorrect statements. A key source of these errors is exposure to new factual information through supervised fine-tuning (SFT), which can increase hallucinations w.r.t. knowledge acquired during pre-training. In this work, we explore whether SFT-induced hallucinations can be mitigated using established tools from the continual learning literature, since they arise as a by-product of knowledge degradation during training. We propose a self-distillation-based SFT method that facilitates effective factual learning while minimizing hallucinations w.r.t. pre-existing knowledge by regularizing output-distribution drift. We also show that, in settings where new knowledge acquisition is unnecessary, suppressing factual plasticity by freezing parameter groups, can preserve task performance while reducing hallucinations. Lastly, we investigate the mechanism behind SFT-induced hallucinations through three hypotheses: capacity limitations, behavior cloning, and localized interference. Our experiments show that a main driver is interference among overlapping semantic representations, and that self-distillation succeeds by mitigating this interference.

Gradients can be employed for sensitivity analysis. Here, we leverage the advantages of the Loss Landscape to comprehend which independent variables impact the dependent variable. We seek to grasp the loss landscape by utilizing first, second, and third derivatives through automatic differentiation. we know that Spearman's rank correlation coefficient can detect the monotonic relationship between two variables. However, I have found that second-order gradients, with certain configurations and parameters, provide information that can be visualized similarly to Spearman results, In this approach, we incorporate a loss function with an activation function, resulting in a non-linear pattern. Each exploration of the loss landscape through retraining yields new valuable information. Furthermore, the first and third derivatives are also beneficial, as they indicate the extent to which independent variables influence the dependent variable.

Training modern large language models (LLMs) has become a veritable smorgasbord of algorithms and datasets designed to elicit particular behaviors, making it critical to develop techniques to understand the effects of datasets on the model's properties. This is exacerbated by recent experiments that show datasets can transmit signals that are not directly observable from individual datapoints, posing a conceptual challenge for dataset-centric understandings of LLM training and suggesting a missing fundamental account of such phenomena. Towards understanding such effects, inspired by recent work on the linear structure of LLMs, we uncover a general mechanism through which hidden subtexts can arise in generic datasets. We introduce Logit-Linear-Selection (LLS), a method that prescribes how to select subsets of a generic preference dataset to elicit a wide range of hidden effects. We apply LLS to discover subsets of real-world datasets so that models trained on them exhibit behaviors ranging from having specific preferences, to responding to prompts in a different language not present in the dataset, to taking on a different persona. Crucially, the effect persists for the selected subset, across models with varying architectures, supporting its generality and universality.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

With an increasing number of replication studies performed in psychological science, the question of how to evaluate the outcome of a replication attempt deserves careful consideration. Bayesian approaches allow to incorporate uncertainty and prior information into the analysis of the replication attempt by their design. The Replication Bayes Factor, introduced by Verhagen & Wagenmakers (2014), provides quantitative, relative evidence in favor or against a successful replication. In previous work by Verhagen & Wagenmakers (2014) it was limited to the case of t-tests. In this paper, the Replication Bayes Factor is extended to F-tests in multi-group, fixed-effect ANOVA designs. Simulations and examples are presented to facilitate the understanding and to demonstrate the usefulness of this approach. Finally, the Replication Bayes Factor is compared to other Bayesian and frequentist approaches and discussed in the context of replication attempts. R code to calculate Replication Bayes factors and to reproduce the examples in the paper is available at https://osf.io/jv39h/.

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in visual-language tasks. However, the authenticity of the responses generated by MLLMs is often compromised by object hallucinations. We identify that a key cause of these hallucinations is the model's over-susceptibility to specific image frequency features in detecting objects. In this paper, we introduce Multi-Frequency Perturbations (MFP), a simple, cost-effective, and pluggable method that leverages both low-frequency and high-frequency features of images to perturb visual feature representations and explicitly suppress redundant frequency-domain features during inference, thereby mitigating hallucinations. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly mitigates object hallucinations across various model architectures. Furthermore, as a training-time method, MFP can be combined with inference-time methods to achieve state-of-the-art performance on the CHAIR benchmark.

Academic citations are widely used for evaluating research and tracing knowledge flows. Such uses typically rely on raw citation counts and neglect variability in citation types. In particular, citations can vary in their fidelity as original knowledge from cited studies may be paraphrased, summarized, or reinterpreted, possibly wrongly, leading to variation in how much information changes from cited to citing paper. In this study, we introduce a computational pipeline to quantify citation fidelity at scale. Using full texts of papers, the pipeline identifies citations in citing papers and the corresponding claims in cited papers, and applies supervised models to measure fidelity at the sentence level. Analyzing a large-scale multi-disciplinary dataset of approximately 13 million citation sentence pairs, we find that citation fidelity is higher when authors cite papers that are 1) more recent and intellectually close, 2) more accessible, and 3) the first author has a lower H-index and the author team is medium-sized. Using a quasi-experiment, we establish the "telephone effect" - when citing papers have low fidelity to the original claim, future papers that cite the citing paper and the original have lower fidelity to the original. Our work reveals systematic differences in citation fidelity, underscoring the limitations of analyses that rely on citation quantity alone and the potential for distortion of evidence.

This study explores the neural and behavioral consequences of LLM-assisted essay writing. Participants were divided into three groups: LLM, Search Engine, and Brain-only (no tools). Each completed three sessions under the same condition. In a fourth session, LLM users were reassigned to Brain-only group (LLM-to-Brain), and Brain-only users were reassigned to LLM condition (Brain-to-LLM). A total of 54 participants took part in Sessions 1-3, with 18 completing session 4. We used electroencephalography (EEG) to assess cognitive load during essay writing, and analyzed essays using NLP, as well as scoring essays with the help from human teachers and an AI judge. Across groups, NERs, n-gram patterns, and topic ontology showed within-group homogeneity. EEG revealed significant differences in brain connectivity: Brain-only participants exhibited the strongest, most distributed networks; Search Engine users showed moderate engagement; and LLM users displayed the weakest connectivity. Cognitive activity scaled down in relation to external tool use. In session 4, LLM-to-Brain participants showed reduced alpha and beta connectivity, indicating under-engagement. Brain-to-LLM users exhibited higher memory recall and activation of occipito-parietal and prefrontal areas, similar to Search Engine users. Self-reported ownership of essays was the lowest in the LLM group and the highest in the Brain-only group. LLM users also struggled to accurately quote their own work. While LLMs offer immediate convenience, our findings highlight potential cognitive costs. Over four months, LLM users consistently underperformed at neural, linguistic, and behavioral levels. These results raise concerns about the long-term educational implications of LLM reliance and underscore the need for deeper inquiry into AI's role in learning.

Multilevel data are prevalent in many real-world applications. However, it remains an open research problem to identify and justify a class of models that flexibly capture a wide range of multilevel data. Motivated by the versatility of the mixture of experts (MoE) models in fitting regression data, in this article we extend upon the MoE and study a class of mixed MoE (MMoE) models for multilevel data. Under some regularity conditions, we prove that the MMoE is dense in the space of any continuous mixed effects models in the sense of weak convergence. As a result, the MMoE has a potential to accurately resemble almost all characteristics inherited in multilevel data, including the marginal distributions, dependence structures, regression links, random intercepts and random slopes. In a particular case where the multilevel data is hierarchical, we further show that a nested version of the MMoE universally approximates a broad range of dependence structures of the random effects among different factor levels.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

Latent diffusion models have emerged as the leading approach for generating high-quality images and videos, utilizing compressed latent representations to reduce the computational burden of the diffusion process. While recent advancements have primarily focused on scaling diffusion backbones and improving autoencoder reconstruction quality, the interaction between these components has received comparatively less attention. In this work, we perform a spectral analysis of modern autoencoders and identify inordinate high-frequency components in their latent spaces, which are especially pronounced in the autoencoders with a large bottleneck channel size. We hypothesize that this high-frequency component interferes with the coarse-to-fine nature of the diffusion synthesis process and hinders the generation quality. To mitigate the issue, we propose scale equivariance: a simple regularization strategy that aligns latent and RGB spaces across frequencies by enforcing scale equivariance in the decoder. It requires minimal code changes and only up to 20K autoencoder fine-tuning steps, yet significantly improves generation quality, reducing FID by 19% for image generation on ImageNet-1K 256^2 and FVD by at least 44% for video generation on Kinetics-700 17 times 256^2. The source code is available at https://github.com/snap-research/diffusability.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generative modeling, yet how to effectively adapt large pretrained models to new tasks remains challenging. We revisit the reconstruction behavior of diffusion models during denoising to unveil the underlying frequency energy mechanism governing this process. Building upon this observation, we propose FeRA, a frequency driven fine tuning framework that aligns parameter updates with the intrinsic frequency energy progression of diffusion. FeRA establishes a comprehensive frequency energy framework for effective diffusion adaptation fine tuning, comprising three synergistic components: (i) a compact frequency energy indicator that characterizes the latent bandwise energy distribution, (ii) a soft frequency router that adaptively fuses multiple frequency specific adapter experts, and (iii) a frequency energy consistency regularization that stabilizes diffusion optimization and ensures coherent adaptation across bands. Routing operates in both training and inference, with inference time routing dynamically determined by the latent frequency energy. It integrates seamlessly with adapter based tuning schemes and generalizes well across diffusion backbones and resolutions. By aligning adaptation with the frequency energy mechanism, FeRA provides a simple, stable, and compatible paradigm for effective and robust diffusion model adaptation.

Language models strongly rely on frequency information because they maximize the likelihood of tokens during pre-training. As a consequence, language models tend to not generalize well to tokens that are seldom seen during training. Moreover, maximum likelihood training has been discovered to give rise to anisotropy: representations of tokens in a model tend to cluster tightly in a high-dimensional cone, rather than spreading out over their representational capacity. Our work introduces a method for quantifying the frequency bias of a language model by assessing sentence-level perplexity with respect to token-level frequency. We then present a method for reducing the frequency bias of a language model by inducing a syntactic prior over token representations during pre-training. Our Syntactic Smoothing method adjusts the maximum likelihood objective function to distribute the learning signal to syntactically similar tokens. This approach results in better performance on infrequent English tokens and a decrease in anisotropy. We empirically show that the degree of anisotropy in a model correlates with its frequency bias.

Inspired by the phenomenon of catastrophic forgetting, we investigate the learning dynamics of neural networks as they train on single classification tasks. Our goal is to understand whether a related phenomenon occurs when data does not undergo a clear distributional shift. We define a `forgetting event' to have occurred when an individual training example transitions from being classified correctly to incorrectly over the course of learning. Across several benchmark data sets, we find that: (i) certain examples are forgotten with high frequency, and some not at all; (ii) a data set's (un)forgettable examples generalize across neural architectures; and (iii) based on forgetting dynamics, a significant fraction of examples can be omitted from the training data set while still maintaining state-of-the-art generalization performance.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit cognitive biases -- systematic tendencies of irrational decision-making, similar to those seen in humans. Prior work has found that these biases vary across models and can be amplified by instruction tuning. However, it remains unclear if these differences in biases stem from pretraining, finetuning, or even random noise due to training stochasticity. We propose a two-step causal experimental approach to disentangle these factors. First, we finetune models multiple times using different random seeds to study how training randomness affects over 30 cognitive biases. Second, we introduce cross-tuning -- swapping instruction datasets between models to isolate bias sources. This swap uses datasets that led to different bias patterns, directly testing whether biases are dataset-dependent. Our findings reveal that while training randomness introduces some variability, biases are mainly shaped by pretraining: models with the same pretrained backbone exhibit more similar bias patterns than those sharing only finetuning data. These insights suggest that understanding biases in finetuned models requires considering their pretraining origins beyond finetuning effects. This perspective can guide future efforts to develop principled strategies for evaluating and mitigating bias in LLMs.

Are pairs of words that tend to occur together also likely to stand in a linguistic dependency? This empirical question is motivated by a long history of literature in cognitive science, psycholinguistics, and NLP. In this work we contribute an extensive analysis of the relationship between linguistic dependencies and statistical dependence between words. Improving on previous work, we introduce the use of large pretrained language models to compute contextualized estimates of the pointwise mutual information between words (CPMI). For multiple models and languages, we extract dependency trees which maximize CPMI, and compare to gold standard linguistic dependencies. Overall, we find that CPMI dependencies achieve an unlabelled undirected attachment score of at most approx 0.5. While far above chance, and consistently above a non-contextualized PMI baseline, this score is generally comparable to a simple baseline formed by connecting adjacent words. We analyze which kinds of linguistic dependencies are best captured in CPMI dependencies, and also find marked differences between the estimates of the large pretrained language models, illustrating how their different training schemes affect the type of dependencies they capture.

Layout-to-image (L2I) generation has exhibited promising results in natural domains, but suffers from limited generative fidelity and weak alignment with user-provided layouts when applied to degraded scenes (i.e., low-light, underwater). We primarily attribute these limitations to the "contextual illusion dilemma" in degraded conditions, where foreground instances are overwhelmed by context-dominant frequency distributions. Motivated by this, our paper proposes a new Frequency-Inspired Contextual Disentanglement Generative (FICGen) paradigm, which seeks to transfer frequency knowledge of degraded images into the latent diffusion space, thereby facilitating the rendering of degraded instances and their surroundings via contextual frequency-aware guidance. To be specific, FICGen consists of two major steps. Firstly, we introduce a learnable dual-query mechanism, each paired with a dedicated frequency resampler, to extract contextual frequency prototypes from pre-collected degraded exemplars in the training set. Secondly, a visual-frequency enhanced attention is employed to inject frequency prototypes into the degraded generation process. To alleviate the contextual illusion and attribute leakage, an instance coherence map is developed to regulate latent-space disentanglement between individual instances and their surroundings, coupled with an adaptive spatial-frequency aggregation module to reconstruct spatial-frequency mixed degraded representations. Extensive experiments on 5 benchmarks involving a variety of degraded scenarios-from severe low-light to mild blur-demonstrate that FICGen consistently surpasses existing L2I methods in terms of generative fidelity, alignment and downstream auxiliary trainability.

This paper introduces a continuous-time stochastic dynamical framework for understanding how large language models (LLMs) may self-amplify latent biases or toxicity through their own chain-of-thought reasoning. The model posits an instantaneous "severity" variable x(t) in [0,1] evolving under a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a drift term μ(x) and diffusion σ(x). Crucially, such a process can be consistently analyzed via the Fokker--Planck approach if each incremental step behaves nearly Markovian in severity space. The analysis investigates critical phenomena, showing that certain parameter regimes create phase transitions from subcritical (self-correcting) to supercritical (runaway severity). The paper derives stationary distributions, first-passage times to harmful thresholds, and scaling laws near critical points. Finally, it highlights implications for agents and extended LLM reasoning models: in principle, these equations might serve as a basis for formal verification of whether a model remains stable or propagates bias over repeated inferences.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in generating human-like text and exhibiting personality traits similar to those in humans. However, the mechanisms by which LLMs encode and express traits such as agreeableness and impulsiveness remain poorly understood. Drawing on the theory of social determinism, we investigate how long-term background factors, such as family environment and cultural norms, interact with short-term pressures like external instructions, shaping and influencing LLMs' personality traits. By steering the output of LLMs through the utilization of interpretable features within the model, we explore how these background and pressure factors lead to changes in the model's traits without the need for further fine-tuning. Additionally, we suggest the potential impact of these factors on model safety from the perspective of personality.

We investigate in-context temporal biases in attention heads and transformer outputs. Using cognitive science methodologies, we analyze attention scores and outputs of the GPT-2 models of varying sizes. Across attention heads, we observe effects characteristic of human episodic memory, including temporal contiguity, primacy and recency. Transformer outputs demonstrate a tendency toward in-context serial recall. Importantly, this effect is eliminated after the ablation of the induction heads, which are the driving force behind the contiguity effect. Our findings offer insights into how transformers organize information temporally during in-context learning, shedding light on their similarities and differences with human memory and learning.

Large language models (LLMs) are frequently fine-tuned or unlearned to adapt to new tasks or eliminate undesirable behaviors. While existing evaluation methods assess performance after such interventions, there remains no general approach for detecting unintended side effects, such as unlearning biology content degrading performance on chemistry tasks, particularly when these effects are unpredictable or emergent. To address this issue, we introduce MNEME, Model diffiNg for Evaluating Mechanistic Effects, a lightweight framework for identifying these side effects using sparse model diffing. MNEME compares base and fine-tuned models on task-agnostic data (for example, The Pile, LMSYS-Chat-1M) without access to fine-tuning data to isolate behavioral shifts. Applied to five LLMs across three scenarios: WMDP knowledge unlearning, emergent misalignment, and benign fine-tuning, MNEME achieves up to 95 percent accuracy in predicting side effects, aligning with known benchmarks and requiring no custom heuristics. Furthermore, we show that retraining on high-activation samples can partially reverse these effects. Our results demonstrate that sparse probing and diffing offer a scalable and automated lens into fine-tuning-induced model changes, providing practical tools for understanding and managing LLM behavior.

Modelling individual decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for understanding behavioural dynamics and informing effective public health interventions. Prior work has shown that large language models can simulate realistic human behaviour by generating agent decisions based on demographic prompts and situational context. We build on this foundation with a spatially grounded, agent-based simulation framework that integrates LLM-generated decisions about self-reported influenza-like illness into a census-based synthetic population of agents. Location is treated as a central feature: agents are assigned to spatial units within cities, capturing the spatial distributions of different demographic groups using real-world census data and enabling geographically diverse behavioural modelling. We implement and compare three decision scenarios, independent reasoning, household influence, and message framing, and simulate self-reporting outcomes in San Francisco and Atlanta. Results reveal that income and education are the dominant drivers of reporting rate variation, with smaller but consistent effects from geography, LLM model choice, and message framing. Our framework generates synthetic data that captures both social and geographic heterogeneity, supporting spatial epidemiological modelling and bias-aware behavioural analysis.

Objective: fMRI and derived measures such as functional connectivity (FC) have been used to predict brain age, general fluid intelligence, psychiatric disease status, and preclinical neurodegenerative disease. However, it is not always clear that all demographic confounds, such as age, sex, and race, have been removed from fMRI data. Additionally, many fMRI datasets are restricted to authorized researchers, making dissemination of these valuable data sources challenging. Methods: We create a variational autoencoder (VAE)-based model, DemoVAE, to decorrelate fMRI features from demographics and generate high-quality synthetic fMRI data based on user-supplied demographics. We train and validate our model using two large, widely used datasets, the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC) and Bipolar and Schizophrenia Network for Intermediate Phenotypes (BSNIP). Results: We find that DemoVAE recapitulates group differences in fMRI data while capturing the full breadth of individual variations. Significantly, we also find that most clinical and computerized battery fields that are correlated with fMRI data are not correlated with DemoVAE latents. An exception are several fields related to schizophrenia medication and symptom severity. Conclusion: Our model generates fMRI data that captures the full distribution of FC better than traditional VAE or GAN models. We also find that most prediction using fMRI data is dependent on correlation with, and prediction of, demographics. Significance: Our DemoVAE model allows for generation of high quality synthetic data conditioned on subject demographics as well as the removal of the confounding effects of demographics. We identify that FC-based prediction tasks are highly influenced by demographic confounds.

From human physiology to environmental evolution, important processes in nature often exhibit meaningful and strong periodic or quasi-periodic changes. Due to their inherent label scarcity, learning useful representations for periodic tasks with limited or no supervision is of great benefit. Yet, existing self-supervised learning (SSL) methods overlook the intrinsic periodicity in data, and fail to learn representations that capture periodic or frequency attributes. In this paper, we present SimPer, a simple contrastive SSL regime for learning periodic information in data. To exploit the periodic inductive bias, SimPer introduces customized augmentations, feature similarity measures, and a generalized contrastive loss for learning efficient and robust periodic representations. Extensive experiments on common real-world tasks in human behavior analysis, environmental sensing, and healthcare domains verify the superior performance of SimPer compared to state-of-the-art SSL methods, highlighting its intriguing properties including better data efficiency, robustness to spurious correlations, and generalization to distribution shifts. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/YyzHarry/SimPer.

This study quantifies the association between non-adherence to antipsychotic medications and adverse outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia. We frame the problem using survival analysis, focusing on the time to the earliest of several adverse events (early death, involuntary hospitalization, jail booking). We extend standard causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching) to utilize various survival models to estimate individual and average treatment effects, where treatment corresponds to medication non-adherence. Analyses are repeated using different amounts of longitudinal information (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Using data from Allegheny County in western Pennsylvania, we find strong evidence that non-adherence advances adverse outcomes by approximately 1 to 4 months. Ablation studies confirm that county-provided risk scores adjust for key confounders, as their removal amplifies the estimated effects. Subgroup analyses by medication formulation (injectable vs. oral) and medication type consistently show that non-adherence is associated with earlier adverse events. These findings highlight the clinical importance of adherence in delaying psychiatric crises and show that integrating survival analysis with causal inference tools can yield policy-relevant insights. We caution that although we apply causal inference, we only make associative claims and discuss assumptions needed for causal interpretation.

We study subliminal learning, a surprising phenomenon where language models transmit behavioral traits via semantically unrelated data. In our main experiments, a "teacher" model with some trait T (such as liking owls or being misaligned) generates a dataset consisting solely of number sequences. Remarkably, a "student" model trained on this dataset learns T. This occurs even when the data is filtered to remove references to T. We observe the same effect when training on code or reasoning traces generated by the same teacher model. However, we do not observe the effect when the teacher and student have different base models. To help explain our findings, we prove a theoretical result showing that subliminal learning occurs in all neural networks under certain conditions, and demonstrate subliminal learning in a simple MLP classifier. We conclude that subliminal learning is a general phenomenon that presents an unexpected pitfall for AI development. Distillation could propagate unintended traits, even when developers try to prevent this via data filtering.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are nondeterministic, the same input can generate different outputs, some of which may be incorrect or hallucinated. If run again, the LLM may correct itself and produce the correct answer. Unfortunately, most LLM-powered systems resort to single results which, correct or not, users accept. Having the LLM produce multiple outputs may help identify disagreements or alternatives. However, it is not obvious how the user will interpret conflicts or inconsistencies. To this end, we investigate how users perceive the AI model and comprehend the generated information when they receive multiple, potentially inconsistent, outputs. Through a preliminary study, we identified five types of output inconsistencies. Based on these categories, we conducted a study (N=252) in which participants were given one or more LLM-generated passages to an information-seeking question. We found that inconsistency within multiple LLM-generated outputs lowered the participants' perceived AI capacity, while also increasing their comprehension of the given information. Specifically, we observed that this positive effect of inconsistencies was most significant for participants who read two passages, compared to those who read three. Based on these findings, we present design implications that, instead of regarding LLM output inconsistencies as a drawback, we can reveal the potential inconsistencies to transparently indicate the limitations of these models and promote critical LLM usage.

Classifier-free guidance (CFG) has become an essential component of modern conditional diffusion models. Although highly effective in practice, the underlying mechanisms by which CFG enhances quality, detail, and prompt alignment are not fully understood. We present a novel perspective on CFG by analyzing its effects in the frequency domain, showing that low and high frequencies have distinct impacts on generation quality. Specifically, low-frequency guidance governs global structure and condition alignment, while high-frequency guidance mainly enhances visual fidelity. However, applying a uniform scale across all frequencies -- as is done in standard CFG -- leads to oversaturation and reduced diversity at high scales and degraded visual quality at low scales. Based on these insights, we propose frequency-decoupled guidance (FDG), an effective approach that decomposes CFG into low- and high-frequency components and applies separate guidance strengths to each component. FDG improves image quality at low guidance scales and avoids the drawbacks of high CFG scales by design. Through extensive experiments across multiple datasets and models, we demonstrate that FDG consistently enhances sample fidelity while preserving diversity, leading to improved FID and recall compared to CFG, establishing our method as a plug-and-play alternative to standard classifier-free guidance.

Diffusion models offer impressive controllability for image tasks, primarily through noise predictions that encode task-specific information and classifier-free guidance enabling adjustable scaling. This scaling mechanism implicitly defines a ``scaling space'' whose potential for fine-grained semantic manipulation remains underexplored. We investigate this space, starting with inversion-based editing where the difference between conditional/unconditional noise predictions carries key semantic information. Our core contribution stems from a Fourier analysis of noise predictions, revealing that its low- and high-frequency components evolve differently throughout diffusion. Based on this insight, we introduce FreSca, a straightforward method that applies guidance scaling independently to different frequency bands in the Fourier domain. FreSca demonstrably enhances existing image editing methods without retraining. Excitingly, its effectiveness extends to image understanding tasks such as depth estimation, yielding quantitative gains across multiple datasets.

Humans are influenced by how information is presented, a phenomenon known as the framing effect. Previous work has shown that LLMs may also be susceptible to framing but has done so on synthetic data and did not compare to human behavior. We introduce WildFrame, a dataset for evaluating LLM responses to positive and negative framing, in naturally-occurring sentences, and compare humans on the same data. WildFrame consists of 1,000 texts, first selecting real-world statements with clear sentiment, then reframing them in either positive or negative light, and lastly, collecting human sentiment annotations. By evaluating eight state-of-the-art LLMs on WildFrame, we find that all models exhibit framing effects similar to humans (rgeq0.57), with both humans and models being more influenced by positive rather than negative reframing. Our findings benefit model developers, who can either harness framing or mitigate its effects, depending on the downstream application.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

With the advent of new sequence models like Mamba and xLSTM, several studies have shown that these models match or outperform state-of-the-art models in single-channel speech enhancement, automatic speech recognition, and self-supervised audio representation learning. However, prior research has demonstrated that sequence models like LSTM and Mamba tend to overfit to the training set. To address this issue, previous works have shown that adding self-attention to LSTMs substantially improves generalization performance for single-channel speech enhancement. Nevertheless, neither the concept of hybrid Mamba and time-frequency attention models nor their generalization performance have been explored for speech enhancement. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid architecture, MambAttention, which combines Mamba and shared time- and frequency-multi-head attention modules for generalizable single-channel speech enhancement. To train our model, we introduce VoiceBank+Demand Extended (VB-DemandEx), a dataset inspired by VoiceBank+Demand but with more challenging noise types and lower signal-to-noise ratios. Trained on VB-DemandEx, our proposed MambAttention model significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art LSTM-, xLSTM-, Mamba-, and Conformer-based systems of similar complexity across all reported metrics on two out-of-domain datasets: DNS 2020 and EARS-WHAM_v2, while matching their performance on the in-domain dataset VB-DemandEx. Ablation studies highlight the role of weight sharing between the time- and frequency-multi-head attention modules for generalization performance. Finally, we explore integrating the shared time- and frequency-multi-head attention modules with LSTM and xLSTM, which yields a notable performance improvement on the out-of-domain datasets. However, our MambAttention model remains superior on both out-of-domain datasets across all reported evaluation metrics.

Recent studies have suggested frequency-domain Data augmentation (DA) is effec tive for time series prediction. Existing frequency-domain augmentations disturb the original data with various full-spectrum noises, leading to excess domain gap between augmented and original data. Although impressive performance has been achieved in certain cases, frequency-domain DA has yet to be generalized to time series prediction datasets. In this paper, we found that frequency-domain augmentations can be significantly improved by two modifications that limit the perturbations. First, we found that limiting the perturbation to only dominant frequencies significantly outperforms full-spectrum perturbations. Dominant fre quencies represent the main periodicity and trends of the signal and are more important than other frequencies. Second, we found that simply shuffling the dominant frequency components is superior over sophisticated designed random perturbations. Shuffle rearranges the original components (magnitudes and phases) and limits the external noise. With these two modifications, we proposed dominant shuffle, a simple yet effective data augmentation for time series prediction. Our method is very simple yet powerful and can be implemented with just a few lines of code. Extensive experiments with eight datasets and six popular time series models demonstrate that our method consistently improves the baseline performance under various settings and significantly outperforms other DA methods. Code can be accessed at https://kaizhao.net/time-series.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

The friction coefficient of a particle can depend on its position as it does when the particle is near a wall. We formulate the dynamics of particles with such state-dependent friction coefficients in terms of a general Langevin equation with multiplicative noise, whose evaluation requires the introduction of specific rules. Two common conventions, the Ito and the Stratonovich, provide alternative rules for evaluation of the noise, but other conventions are possible. We show the requirement that a particle's distribution function approach the Boltzmann distribution at long times dictates that a drift term must be added to the Langevin equation. This drift term is proportional to the derivative of the diffusion coefficient times a factor that depends on the convention used to define the multiplicative noise. We explore the consequences of this result in a number examples with spatially varying diffusion coefficients. We also derive path integral representations for arbitrary interpretation of the noise, and use it in a perturbative study of correlations in a simple system.

How would randomly shuffling feature vectors among nodes from the same class affect graph neural networks (GNNs)? The feature shuffle, intuitively, perturbs the dependence between graph topology and features (A-X dependence) for GNNs to learn from. Surprisingly, we observe a consistent and significant improvement in GNN performance following the feature shuffle. Having overlooked the impact of A-X dependence on GNNs, the prior literature does not provide a satisfactory understanding of the phenomenon. Thus, we raise two research questions. First, how should A-X dependence be measured, while controlling for potential confounds? Second, how does A-X dependence affect GNNs? In response, we (i) propose a principled measure for A-X dependence, (ii) design a random graph model that controls A-X dependence, (iii) establish a theory on how A-X dependence relates to graph convolution, and (iv) present empirical analysis on real-world graphs that align with the theory. We conclude that A-X dependence mediates the effect of graph convolution, such that smaller dependence improves GNN-based node classification.